Simulation Documentation, Egypt 2020
By: Khaled Nassar
Chapter I
Preface:
This paper is a full, step-by-step documentation of the Simulation Model. It illustrates how the ideas have developed into a software system. You will find this document discussing the software from two points of view in the first two chapters, one is the “ideas” point of view, the other is the Architecture point of view. Afterwards it will illustrate the processes of Analysis, Design, Programming and maintenance.
This monograph differs from the previous ones in that it contains every bit of documentation or code available on the software up till now. It is also considered a very helpful guide to other later simulation trials. Most document contain either ideas of methodology and architecture or pure code, some times they contain analysis, design and pseudo code, but rarely one could find a document taking the software building process from it’s beginning down to its code, so any reader could really see how ideas could be altered to code through multiple processes.
This document lack profession, large software-building experience but it is satisfying considering time and abilities.
Index:
1- General Description of the system
- Main inputs.
- Main outputs.
- Main operations.
2- Software pyramid illustration
- Interface.
- Modeling.
- Database.
3- Analysis
- Demography.
- Manufacturing.
- Agriculture.
- Construction & Communication.
- Pollution.
- Resources.
4- Design
- Design flow charts.
- Database design.
- Interface design (screen charts).
- Reports.
- Class Repository documentation.
- The whole model Flowchart.
5- Coding & Database
- Code header files.
- Base year Database.
6- Logic Rapid Development
- Sensitivity Analysis.
- Maintenance.
7- Systems & References
- Software
o Other Methodology.
o Macro programs for excel.
o Other Traditional & Structured trials.
- Software Application List.
- Books List.
- Links.
- References.
1- General Description of the system
- Main inputs.
- Main outputs.
- Main operations.
General Description of the system:
The idea of this software was to build a qualitative simulation model that embeds quantitative sub-models inside, this idea was not implemented in the real system instead -due to the lack of time and abilities- qualitative experience was dealt with in only two ways:
1- By embedding some rules that were data-mined into the (sub-model to sub-model) Relations.
2- By intelligently interacting with the expert user to take his/her experience into consideration in the form of critical parameters mostly accompanied by comments.
- Users are experts who can give their expertise to make a run, or during the building of the model.
- Interface to help the users to communicate with the software.
- Qualitative models that can understand expertise and implement them in the model. This understanding process should take place during the building and the running of the model.
- Quantitative to do the economic, demographic and environmental calculations.
Qualitative |
Interface |
Quantitative |
Main inputs:
Expert User |
Expertise & Parameters |
Status Information |
Actor User |
Scenario Information |
Status Information |
Context Diagram |
•Provoke the user through interface. •Receive Opinions and Expertise from user. •Interact with the user to develop better scenarios. •Read from and write to Database. •Run and calculate the sub-models ( Economic, Demographic, Environmental, Qualitative). •Insert scenarios and qualitative factors into the model’s calculations. •Develop Reports. |
Demography sub-model:
1- Population of the previous 5-years period (structured).
2- Fertility, Mortality, Migration and education Factors.
3- Other status information about the previous 5-years period.
Economy sub-model:
1- Macro Economy information from the previous 5-years period.
a. GDP.
b. GNP.
c. Investment.
d. Foreign Trade.
2- 11 Manufacturing Sectors’ information
a. GDP.
b. Imports, Exports.
3- 13 other Sectors’ information
a. GDP.
b. Imports, Exports.
4- Other status information about the previous 5-years period.
5- The Elasticity and factors on which depends the development of all the previous sectors.
Environment sub-model:
1- Status information about all the resources (energy, water, surface, materials).
2- The factors by which the population and the economy consume and add to these resources.
3- Status information about all the pollutants.
4- The factors by which the population and the economy add to these pollutants.
Linking modules:
1- Policies.
2- Relations and Rules.
3- Indicators.
Main outputs:
Demography sub-model:
1- Population of the current 5-years period (structured).
2- Deaths, Migrants, Educated and babies (structured).
3- Other status information about the current 5-years period.
Economy sub-model:
1- Macro Economy information from the current 5-years period.
c. GDP.
d. GNP.
e. Investment.
f. Foreign Trade.
2- 11 Manufacturing Sectors’ information
g. GDP.
h. Imports, Exports.
3- 13 other Sectors’ information
i. GDP.
j. Imports, Exports.
4- Other status information about the current 5-years period.
Environment sub-model:
1- Status information about all the resources (energy, water, surface, materials) like reserves, consumptions and additions.
2- Status information about all the pollutants.
Main Operations:
Demography sub-model:
1- Calculate Population pyramid.
2- Calculate Births.
3- Calculate Deaths.
4- Calculate External Migration.
5- Calculate Internal Migration.
6- Calculate Labor Force.
7- All of the above except for the migration is calculated for both Egypt and all the 26 governary.
Economy sub-model:
1- Calculate the National Accounts.
2- Calculate the GDP of all the 24 Economic sectors along with the Exports and Imports of each sector.
3- Calculate the interactions among the sectors and between them and the macro-economy.
Environment sub-model:
1- Calculate the addition, consumption and reserves for each Resource.
2- Calculate the pollutants emitted mostly by economic sectors.
